Randy Steinman is a campaign professional in Kansas City/MO. He specializes in organizing campaigns around ballot decisions on issues.
Hi Randy, the polls say Biden will pull it off. how do things look from Kansas City?
I don’t trust polls I did not have a hand in creating them. But it feels like Biden will win. More importantly, the Republicans will lose the Senate.
Wow – where do you think the Democrats will win seats?
The Republicans are definitely going to lose in Colorado and Arizona. They are likely to lose in Maine. Georgia and South Carolina are a coin toss. And in Iowa the Democrats have a strong chance. Also, I think there is a strong chance that in Arizona the house is going to flip from republican to democrat.
Why the change?
The Republicans are the party in charge, and an election always is a referendum on that party’s performance. Many are very frustrated with the handling of the Corona crisis, with the economy and with the personality of the President. And people don’t like to see how the republican Senators lined up behind Trump’s coattails.
Which groups make the difference?
Unlike 2016, the African American vote is turning out this time. Kamala Harris might be a factor. And the frustration about the George Floyd case, all of those deaths make a difference.
I see that prominent rappers are behind Trump, 50 Cent, Lil’ Wayne. The Trump followers make a big deal about it. They say young male blacks are drawn to Trump.
This is wishful thinking. At best, a few young black males follow those rappers. The mass of the black voters are over 35 years old. Plus, personal endorsements really carry little weight in my opinion. They are a double-edged sword because they can also alienate people.
There is a lot of talk about the “suburbs” and the suburban vote changing from more republican to more democrat. Do you see this? And what does “suburban” actually mean? Is this a valid category?
There certainly is a different set of values in suburban areas compared to urban and rural environments. And there is definitely a trend toward the Democrats. I see it here. I live in a suburb. 2016 Trump won comfortably here. Not now.
Some say it makes more sense to differentiate according to education level.
Sure. There are only a few college professors for Trump.
I know one. He says Trump is a jerk. But he thinks Biden is mentally substandard and maybe has dementia.
I have colleagues who are actively working for republican candidates. On their own ballots they do not vote for Trump.
There will be a huge additional turnout compared to previous elections. Who does this benefit?
The additional turnout favors the democrats.
I am in Philadelphia were Biden is scheduled to speak. It is impossible to find out where this event takes place.
I never saw a presidential candidate as protective as Biden. It is unusual. But I understand it. It is justifiable, given what happened in Texas yesterday.